The daily average mail income for January was $90,013, well below our projections of $112,500.
However, as I write the update for this month's WN, it is already well into February. Although I feel guilty missing my deadline by a day or so (since this makes it harder on the WN staff to meet their own deadlines), I am nonetheless happy I waited before writing this month's column.
January income was disappointing, to the point of some serious concern on my part. If I had written the column even one week earlier, my tone might have been more gloomy than it, I hope, need be.
Let me give some details. We set last year's income projection at a minimum of $122,000 per day.
As its turns out, the mail income average was a bit higher at about $125,000. This was good because our expenses equaled almost exactly this amount.
Using last year's mail income as a guide, along with other factors, we projected this year's income at minus 10 percent. Projecting a decrease is not a desire for a self-fulfilling prophecy, but is an attempt to look at trends and project income objectively.
Although we projected a further decline for 1998, the rate of decline was projected to be less than 1997 (when we projected and realized about a 20 percent decline).
So, projecting a 10 percent decline was planning for a more positive scenario, relatively speaking.
Another way to say we project a 10 percent decline in 1998 is to say we expect a year-end daily average mail income of about $112,000 per day.
We do not expect each month to be at this level. Some months will be higher, and some less. However, we have noted that January usually comes in at the average amount we will have received at the year's end.
Using our projections and experience, then, we expected to see an average for January of about $112,500 per day, but as the chart shows, we received only $90,000 per day.
Since this is far under the year- end projection, I was in the midst of a Maalox month, instead of just a Maalox moment. Once the month-end totals came in and income was still down, we hoped that February would be strong and thus offset the January disappointment.
Of course, we wouldn't know whether it was strong until some time had passed, which, at this writing it has. The good news is that February has seen a significant strengthening of income and, if it continues, the trend for the year will tend to stabilize nearer our projection.
Nonetheless, the financial need is still acute, so I do pray, and ask you to pray, that we stay on a solid financial course for the rest of the month and year.
Thank you for your prayers, notes of support and your freewill offerings. The monies are much needed and are used with the greatest care to provide for the long-term stability of the church.
Feb. 24, 1998, WN, page 28.
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